Bitcoin is pressing into the $78K zone that on-chain analysts call the True Market Mean, and the next Federal Reserve signals plus U.S. retail-sales data are likely to shape whether that line becomes a breakout or another rejection point.
Why Bitcoin’s $78K True Market Mean Matters Now
In an April 15 Glassnode report, Bitcoin was trading near $74K and sat 5.2% below the $78.1K True Market Mean. Glassnode said a sustained move above $78.1K would require buyers to absorb overhead supply.
In plain English, the True Market Mean is an estimate of what active coins last paid on average, not what long-lost wallets once paid years ago. When Bitcoin stays below that line, more recent holders are closer to break-even, so rallies can run into selling pressure quickly.
The CoinGecko Bitcoin page showed spot at $74,567, a 24-hour change of 0.55%, market cap at $1.49 trillion, and 24-hour volume of $39.47 billion. That live market snapshot still leaves Bitcoin below the $78.1K mean that Glassnode says the market must reclaim.
Glassnode also said Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit was 43.2%, which leaves room below the levels that usually mark late-stage bear-market rallies. At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index sat at 23, or Extreme Fear, showing that retail mood still looks defensive.
That gap between the linked 43.2% profit reading and the linked 23 sentiment score helps explain why Bitcoin can look firmer on-chain than it feels to everyday traders. It also fits the cautious backdrop seen when Bitcoin broke $75K on Gate as bulls eyed key resistance.
The clearest line in the sand still comes from Glassnode’s own wording around the $78.1K threshold. For people holding a small amount of BTC, that level is the simple battleground to watch because it tells you whether the market is getting back above the average cost basis of active coins.
“A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply.”
Glassnode, The Week Onchain, Week 15
How Fed Signals and Retail Data Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move
The next official checkpoint is Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller’s economic-outlook speech on April 17, 2026, which appears on the Fed’s April calendar. The next policy meeting follows on April 28-29, 2026, according to the central bank’s FOMC schedule.
Those two Fed dates, April 17 and April 28-29, matter because Bitcoin often reacts when interest-rate expectations shift. The broader Washington backdrop also matters for crypto users, which is why policy readers are following items like Senator Thom Tillis’s stablecoin legislation update alongside the Fed calendar.
The other scheduled catalyst is the Census Bureau’s March Advance Monthly Retail report, which the agency says will be released on April 21, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. In the prior report, advance retail and food services sales were $738.4 billion, up 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% from a year earlier.
Those linked 0.6% and 3.7% readings matter because another firm spending number could reinforce a higher-for-longer Fed view, which can pressure risk assets. The same debate over dollar liquidity and payments is part of why some readers are also tracking Jeremy Allaire’s yuan-backed stablecoin comments as a separate policy story.
What Traders Should Watch if Bitcoin Breaks Above or Below the Mean
If Bitcoin can reclaim the $78.1K True Market Mean after the April 17 speech or the April 21 retail release, it would show buyers are finally absorbing the supply Glassnode flagged. A breakout would look more credible if the 43.2% short-term-holder profit reading rises without a rush to take gains.
If Bitcoin fails again at $78.1K while the Fear and Greed Index stays near 23, the market is still behaving like a fragile rally rather than a clean trend change. That would keep attention on the same resistance area highlighted in Coinlineup’s earlier Bitcoin resistance coverage instead of opening a clearly stronger leg higher.
For regular holders, the practical checklist is simple: watch Bitcoin’s reaction to the April 17 Fed speech, compare it with the April 21 retail print, and then see where spot stands before the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. Those scheduled events matter more here than day-to-day noise because they are the next confirmed tests around Bitcoin’s $78K decision zone.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
